Guardians vs. Tigers prediction, picks, odds for ALDS Game 4 on Thursday, Oct. 10 (2024)

Down 2-1 in the ALDS, the Cleveland Guardians are on the brink of elimination — they take on the Detroit Tigers for Game 4 at Comerica Park on Thursday night. First pitch is set for 6:08 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on TNT and Max.

The Tigers utilized a bullpen day on Wednesday, and it’s likely manager A.J. Hinch will repeat that strategy. Keider Montero only threw six pitches Wednesday, so he could get more action in this matchup.

The Guardians will start Tanner Bibee, who has been reliable and racked up nearly 200 strikeouts this season. He doesn’t keep the ball on the ground much, but he kept the Tigers in check on Saturday and could do the same again..

The stage is set, so let’s get to my Guardians vs. Tigers prediction for Game 4 on Thursday, Oct. 10.

Guardians vs. Tigers Predictions

• Guardians vs. Tigers picks: Guardians Moneyline (-115) | Play to -135

My Guardians vs. Tigers best bet for ALDS Game 4 is on the Guardians, where I see value at -115. The best line is available at DraftKings, but make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.

Guardiansvs. TigersOdds

Guardians vs. Tigers Game 4 Projected Starting Pitchers

D.J. James’s Guardians vs. Tigers Preview

Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview: Can Bibee Limit Tigers?

Bibee owned a 3.47 ERA and a 3.80 xERA in the regular season. His Average Exit Velocity was a touch above 88 mph and he had an above average Hard-Hit Rate. He strikes out more than 26% of the batters he faces and walks under 7%, so he has been effective, even with a ground-ball rate in the 10th percentile. He held the Tigers to four hits and no earned runs over 4 2/3 innings on Saturday and I expect a similar outing, unless he allows too many fly balls.

The Guardians had a 90 wRC+ in September with a 6.9% walk rate and a 23% strikeout rate. They have six bats above a .300 xwOBA, but this isn’t necessarily a deep lineup. However, the top of the order can do damage and make contact against Detroit’s opener and bullpen Cleveland has seen often.

In relief, the Guardians held a 3.50 xFIP with a 6.3% walk rate and a 28.1% strikeout rate in September. Yes, Emmanuel Clase had some trouble with Kerry Carpenter and company, but he only allowed five earned runs all regular season. Cleveland also has several other options, especially if Bibee can notch more than four or five innings.

Detroit Tigers Betting Preview: Bats Remain Hot

Montero very well could be on the bump again Thursday. He had a 4.76 ERA and a 5.10 xERA in the regular season. He allows plenty of contact, so this could end up being a poor matchup with Cleveland. Otherwise, Tyler Holton could see some action after Brant Hurter logged some heavy work on Wednesday.

Holton posted a 2.19 ERA and a 2.75 xERA during the regular season. His Average Exit Velocity, Hard-Hit Rate and ground-ball rate were well above average. He can also log more than one inning, if necessary. Detroit’s bullpen had a 3.72 xFIP in relief in September, but is lacking in the strikeout department.

The Tigers held a 107 wRC+, a 9.8% walk rate and a 24.8% strikeout rate in September. They have multiple hitters who are effective against righties and held xwOBAs over .300, but Bibee will miss some bats.

Guardians vs. Tigers Prediction, Betting Analysis

Bibee is the better option and can throw deeper into a game. The Guardians have seen the Tigers’ bullpen often and with Detroit seemingly unable to hand the ball to Hurter, Skubal or Olson, Detroit’s ‘pen could be in a tough spot.

Cleveland has solid bats at the top of the order and its bullpen can close the door. Bet Cleveland from -115 to -135.

Pick: Cleveland Guardians Moneyline (-115) | Play to -135

Moneyline

I’m betting the Guardians moneyline in this ALDS matchup.

Run Line (Spread)

I’m passing on the Guardians vs. Tigers run line.

Over/Under

I won’t be betting the Guardians vs. Tigers over/under.